In recent years, multinational tobacco companies Philip Morris International and British American Tobacco have actively promoted various new tobacco products in the international tobacco market, including nicotine pouches. Philip Morris International launched the ZYN brand nicotine pouches, while British American Tobacco launched the Velo brand nicotine pouches.
Philip Morris International (PMI) and British American Tobacco (BAT) recently launched their nicotine pouches in Argentina. In Argentina, e-cigarettes and heated tobacco products remain banned, making nicotine pouches currently the only legal new tobacco product in the country. PMI has reportedly attempted to overturn Argentina's heated tobacco ban, but so far their efforts have been unsuccessful.
According to Carole, head of British American Tobacco Ireland, the company launched Velo brand nicotine pouches in Ireland in June 2023. Since then, sales have grown rapidly in the country. From 2023 to 2024, sales of Velo brand nicotine pouches in Ireland surged from 6 million pouches to 29 million pouches, nearly a fivefold increase, while sales revenue increased by 442%. Velo brand nicotine pouches are the market leader in this category in Ireland, holding a market share of 45.9% in 2024.
The Japanese market is a target for British American Tobacco (BAT) in promoting its Velo brand nicotine pouches. The Japanese market has a high acceptance of innovative products, and heated cigarettes account for nearly half of the country's tobacco market share. Therefore, BAT believes that nicotine pouches have significant growth potential in Japan. BAT's strategy is to export Velo brand nicotine pouches to Japan through its subsidiary in Pakistan, aiming to achieve annual export revenue of $100 million.
Currently, Philip Morris International has launched the ZYN brand nicotine bag in nine markets and some duty-free shops worldwide. These markets include the UK, Switzerland, Hungary, Iceland, Finland and Latvia in Europe, Pakistan and the Philippines in Asia, and South Africa in Africa.
Philip Morris International plans to produce 800 million to 1 billion cans of nicotine pouches this year, primarily in the United States, and anticipates continued growth in sales of this product in international markets. While ZYN brand nicotine pouches have achieved success in the US and Nordic markets, regulatory uncertainty and consumer acceptance are two major challenges for ZYN brand nicotine pouches to make progress in the international market.
55% of Philip Morris International's nicotine pouch business revenue is related to ZYN sales in the United States. ZYN is growing faster in the US market than other nicotine pouches, and this trend continues. In fiscal year 2023, the company sold 292 million cans of ZYN-branded nicotine pouches in the US market, representing a year-over-year increase of over 40%. Philip Morris International has developed a 2024-2026 plan for ZYN-branded nicotine pouches, aiming to produce 800 million to 1 billion cans of nicotine pouches in the US by 2026. Considering the product's growth momentum in the US and the limitations imposed on other products by the FDA's premarket product application process, this target appears achievable.
Philip Morris International projects that the U.S. nicotine pouch market will triple in size by 2030, with ZYN brand nicotine pouches generating $3.5 billion in net revenue. However, competition will intensify further once British American Tobacco and Altria Group overcome the pre-market product approval hurdle. Furthermore, U.S. state and federal governments may introduce or increase excise taxes on nicotine pouches.
In conclusion, Philip Morris International's 2026 nicotine bag development target appears reasonable. However, maintaining this growth momentum beyond 2026 will be difficult, especially given the increasingly stringent market regulatory environment.
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